The Goldilocks Office: Finding the Sweet-Spot Where Space, Experience & Value Converge
By Ricardo Chacon, MEng. WELL AP, LEED AP. Founder, The Common Blue – for CoreNet Global
Executive Snapshot
Office and Corporate real estate (CRE) may only absorb about one-tenth of operating expense, but it sets the stage for the other nine-tenths—people costs. An office that is chronically half-empty drains cash, energy and culture; one that is jam-packed fuels noise, stress and turnover. This article shows CRE managers, CFOs and workplace leaders how to locate—and defend—the “just-right” zone of space that maximises employee experience while minimising cost and carbon. We translate utilisation data, space-time analytics and risk-based capacity planning into a three-step playbook you can run tomorrow.
1 | Why right-sizing suddenly matters: The 10 % That Controls the Other 90 %
Office premises typically trail only payroll . Yet oversupply is rampant: CBRE’s 2024 survey found that 74 % of occupiers hit >60 % attendance on peak mid-week days, but only 28 % sustain that across a full week. Three days of buzz, two days of tumbleweed—and a lease bill that never sleeps.
2 | Legacy Bias: Why We Keep Buying Empty Chairs
Researcher William Fawcett calls it the “fear-of-undersizing” paradox: executives are reprimanded when desks run out, never when square metres sit idle. His life-cycle studies show oversizing can inflate cost by 20-30 % versus a capacity matched to realistic change rates. Post-COVID utilisation confirms the bias: fewer than one-third of companies average above 60 % use .
3 | Introducing the Goldilocks Curve (Figure 1)
Our experience at The Common Blue reveals employee experience follows an inverted-U pattern as space per person increases:
Too tight (Red) – crowding, low availability of meeting rooms, noisy, sensory overload.
Just right (Green) – critical mass for collaboration, brand energy, spontaneous learning, ideas’ crosspollination.
Too loose (Red again) – emptiness, “too quiet” floors, disengagement, depressed vibes, wasted cash.
4 | Quantifying the Sweet Spot
4.1 What the Data Says
Space-time surveys back from 2005 in large portfolios show a typical 57 % desk utilisation during any half-day —remarkably close to CBRE’s numbers 20 years later! Pushing utilisation from 60 % (historical “full” demand) to 85 % (modelled “expected” demand) lets organisations drop about one-third of fixed desks yet maintain service quality.
4.2 Cost-and-Capacity Trade-offs
When you plot desk count (cost) against probability of “no-desk” events (service risk), returns diminish fast. Each extra desk buys a little more certainty but at escalating cost and detriment in employee experience. In practice, portfolios that aim for ~95-97 % seating certainty (≈ 1–2 “no-desk” moments in entire years, usually over 200 effective working days) capture most savings without harming morale. The right KPI therefore shifts from cost per desk provided to cost per desk actually used (CPDU).
5 | Three-Step Method for CRE + CFOs
Step
Action
Outcome
1. Pattern-Mapping
Merge badge swipes, people counting, sensors data (if any) to build a probability curve of true demand.
Fact-based utilisation spectrum > anecdotes.
2. Risk-Appetite Calibration
With Finance & HR, set an acceptable “no-desk” probability (e.g., ≤1 %, ≤5 %).
Quantified service-level target.
3. Overflow Playbook
Touch-down zones, co-work passes, dynamic seating tech, satellite offices.
Converts tail-risk into variable or predictable OPEX, not fixed CAPEX.
The Common Blue toolkit automates all the steps and simulates Step 3 so one strategist can outperform five traditional consultants.
6 | Implementation Roadmap
5-Day Pilot – apply method to a pilot hub.
20-Day Entire Regional Portfolio – roll out for unprecedented view and precision for your entire regional portfolio
6 to 12-Month Internal Rollout – uplift internal capabilities, scale dashboards, renegotiate leases, upgrade employee experience.
Governance Loop – quarterly utilisation audits; annual refresh of the risk-target.
KPIs: Run-rate, Cost Per Desk Used (CPU), Experience Index (ie. Leesman or similar), Carbon-per-FTE.
7 | Takeaways for 2025+
Oversized space silently taxes profit and culture; cramped space screams. Use data, probability and overflow strategies to live at the peak of the curve—where cost is lean, people actually want to show up, and carbon footprint is small.
Ready to test your own Goldilocks zone? Reach out for our occupancy scan pilot.
